Up-and-Coming Neighborhoods Across America

7 Comments so far

1. Greg Swann on March 7, 2007 2:48 pm

   Five years ago Cashion, AZ was cotton fileds and tarpaper shacks. Now it’s a middle-brow stucco-and-tile suburb. Maybe not a good candidate for comparison…

2. David G from Zillow.com on March 7, 2007 3:22 pm

   Greg —

   That’s interesting. How did it come about that Cashion turned residential and who were the lucky developers? When I see massive growth like this, I always wonder whether it was organic and about who benefited the most — was it a few wealthy land barons that turned Cashion around or did the average homeowner also benefit from the areas renewal?

3. Greg Swann on March 7, 2007 6:22 pm

   In the Phoenix area, except for the most expensive custom homes, a new neighborhood is as organic as Dacron. A land buyer will come in and assemble enough parcels to make an attractive master-planned community, rationalizing the zoning. He’ll sell the giant parcel to a master-planned community developer, who will plat out roads, subdivisions, retail, schools, churches, etc., getting all this through the state and municipal paperwork machines. Then the master planner will sell off each type of plat to a different developer, each of whom will then put up their type of structures. The homes will be built by different builders in different subdivisions, with differentiation mainly by marketing to establish price points. In the case of Cashion, the price ranges are pretty narrow, but in other master planned communities, the priciest subdivision might sell at five times the prices of the lowest price competitor. There will be quality differences in these homes, but not nearly as much as you would expect for the money. Same dirt, same approximate place, huge price differences. Marketing and exclusion. The whole process, from cotton fields to built-out suburb, takes from five to twenty years, depending on the size of the community. It’s a lot of fun to watch.

   Qui bono? The cotton farmers got above-market prices for their land. It’s why they sold. Later sellers got more. The land buyer got an above-market price for the land by improving it by assembly and legal rationalization. The master planner got really good money for the dirt for having imposed value upon it by planning. Each of the home developers got a huge amount of money, per square foot of dirt, for the land, plus at least a 200% premium on construction costs. But the homeowners got brand new homes at a price competitive with a comparable resale homes. When it works right, everybody wins.

   This is happening now in a huge way in Buckeye, west of Cashion. About five years ago, they discovered a 100-year aquifer that will support 100,000 new homes. So they’re building 100,000 new homes. Lots of old-time Buckeye farming families are suddenly very wealthy. But if you’re willing to drive that far, you can buy a brand new home for about $20,000 less than it might cost you in Cashion or Avondale. And you’re that much closer to Disneyland!

4. David G from Zillow.com on March 8, 2007 8:00 am

   Greg —

   Thanks — you convinced me that it’s a win-win phenomenon when new communities are well planned. No wonder Cashion made our list. I also appreciate your point that not all new development delivers equal value — it would seem that avoiding the most exclusive property even in a new development is still good investment advice.

   Thanks again.

5. Dan Green on March 10, 2007 1:02 pm

   East Garfield Park may be rapidly appreciating on paper, but the analysis needs to consider that EGP is also among the most mortgage fraud-laden areas in the city.

   Perhaps some of that sales data is bogus?

6. B. Levante on March 26, 2007 11:46 am

   Hmmm…if these other areas are like East Garfield Park then one can only assume that they too are ghetto gang-infested slums on the edge of gentrifying neighborhoods. Hopefully, you don’t plan to live there with your family.

7. Jack on August 8, 2008 8:14 am

   good to see Dorchester up there