Today, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that the non-seasonally adjusted June 10- and 20-City Composite rose 0.1% and 0.5% on a year-over-year basis, in line with Zillow’s forecast released last week. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the 10- and 20-City Composites rose 1.0% and 0.9% from May to June. The table below shows how our forecast compared with the actual numbers.
“Case-Shiller’s June numbers further affirm what other indices have already been showing, namely that the overall market is healing, albeit at a frustratingly slow pace. While we have seen healthy appreciation for the past few months, we do expect declines in the Case-Shiller indices in the back half of this year, particularly as the overall monthly sales volume declines, thereby increasing the percentage of foreclosure re-sales in the transactional mix being tracked by Case-Shiller,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “Overall, the period of sustained home values declines are behind us, however, due to high levels of negative equity and the associated scourge of foreclosures we’re still a few years away from a normal housing market.”
Our forecasting model incorporates previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, as well as Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure re-sales. To see how Zillow’s forecast of the May Case-Shiller indices compared, see our blog post from last month.