Q2 Home Value Reports: Larger Homes, Condos Suffer Most
By: Stan Humphries, VP, Data & Analytics | August 13, 2007
Today we’ve released our Q2 2007 Home Value Reports, covering the national market and 66 individual metropolitan statistical areas (MSA’s). The reports go deep on an MSA basis, by county and neighborhood, and by quarter-over-quarter, year-over-year, and 5 & 10-year annualized changes. We also look at different categories of homes — large/medium/small, single-family residences vs. condos, and most popular on Zillow by geography. Whew! Now on to topline results….
The national Zindex home value indicator is virtually flat quarter-over-quarter (0.1% ), and down slightly year-over-year (-2.8%). These results mark an end to the consecutive QoQ declines experienced in the previous two quarters which should come as some good news (even better if it holds up for Q3, of course!).
Overall, the Q2 results still depict a fairly anemic national real estate market with a few particularly interesting segments worth calling out:
- The condominium market is struggling significantly more than the single-family home market. Single-family homes increased 0.2% QoQ (down 2.6% YoY) while condos were down 0.9% QoQ (down 5.2% YoY).
- Smaller homes are faring much better than mid- to large-sized homes. Smaller homes (less than 1,200 square feet) only dropped 1% YoY (and increased 0.8% QoQ) while mid- to large-sized homes dropped 3.1% and 2.8% YoY, respectively (see the reports for details about each size category).
- Similar to prior quarters, the Pacific Northwest continues to be represented well in the top metro areas with the highest YoY appreciation rates, including Corvallis, Ore. (11.2%); Eugene-Springfield, Ore.. (6.9%); Spokane, Wash. (6.1%) and Seattle-Tacoma-Bremerton, Wash. (5.3%). And, on the other end of the spectrum, South Florida and Southern California are among the metro areas with the lowest YoY appreciation rates: Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla. (-16.4%); Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay, Fla. (-14.3%); Stockton-Lodi, Calif. (-13.5%); Daytona Beach, Fla. (-12.5%); and Modesto, Calif. (-12.4%).
The detail by home size is new to the quarterly reports this quarter (thanks to Jonathan Miller for suggesting additional detail on home amenities like square footage). As with the previous quarter, we’re also reporting on the value of the “average” home (3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 1500 square feet) in various metro areas around the country, allowing an apples-to-apples comparison of how much the same house fetches in different real estate markets.
We’ve also got the popularity of various areas in these reports so you can see where people are looking at homes. The most-searched MSA’s on Zillow in Q2 were the Seattle metropolitan area, San Francisco Bay Area, San Diego, Sacramento, and a tie for Portland and Phoenix at 5th. We’ve also included these popularity rankings for the previous five quarters so you can see how the popularity of areas has changed over the past year.
You can find a link to the most recent quarterly reports at the footer of every Zillow page. And as always, let us know what types of information would be most interesting to you in these reports and we’ll look into including next time.
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- Categories: Real Estate Analytics, Real Estate Industry, Zestimate, Zillow
Comments
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Lander on August 13, 2007 2:39 pm
The home size information is very interesting. Is there a reason why the historical zindex figures were excluded this time around?
FYI: Stockton & Modesto are in Northern California.
Stan Humphries on August 13, 2007 6:47 pm
Hello Lander. Since we added all the detail by housing type and size, we thought it might be data overkill to show the detailed Zindex time series data as well, and it wasn’t clear that a lot of people found these tabs useful (e.g., we didn’t see a lot of web articles/blogs making use of the time series data whereas a lot of people referenced the one, five and ten year appreciation rates in the summary tabs).
Sounds like you did find it useful though. Have others? If so, we’ll consider adding it back in next quarter.
Sorry for the potentially confusing text about Stockton and Modesto. While Southern California is, in fact, not doing so well, the California cities that ended up in the bottom five metro areas were, indeed, not in Southern California.
Real Estate Links » Blog Archive » Report Card on August 14, 2007 1:24 pm
[…] Q2 Home Value Reports: Larger Homes, Condos Suffer Most - Zillow Blog - Real Estate News and Analysi… Today weve released our Q2 2007 Home Value Reports, covering the national market and 66 individual metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). The reports go deep on an MSA basis, by county and neighborhood, and by quarter-over-quarter, year-over-year, and 5 & 10-year annualized changes. We also look at different categories of homes large/medium/small, single-family residences vs. condos, and most popular on Zillow by geography. Whew! Now on to topline results. […]
Terry McDonald on August 15, 2007 6:36 am
I posted this to Active Rain a few minutes ago, I need your take on this:
Dan, I saw the Zillow numbers as well and compared them to what we are seeing in Charlotte— and I’m wishing they were true. If you get into their details you can check zip codes—and fastest appreciating neighborhoods, great stuff!! I just love this kind of data but it doesn’t wash with our date from the MLS. Check out these two zipcode market reports, 28277 and 28278- by Zillows estimate the first and 3rd most popular zips here. I also compared the last 3 months sale to a year ago at the same period, and the apprecdiation rates, based on average cost per square foot, were still positive, but in the 3-5% range, not the 9% Zestimate.
Reading the details of the press release they say their nuimbers are computed this way, “The Zindex home value indicator is the median ZestimateTM valuation for a given geographic area on a given day, and includes the value of all homes, not just those that sold in a given period. Exactly half the Zestimates for a region are below this number, and half the Zestimates are above it. It is expressed in dollars and is for a particular geographic region.” Zillow Press Release. the bold and italics are mine— just how did they do that, the value of all the homes?
Any comments AR folk?
How about Zillow? How do you do this?
David Gibbons on August 15, 2007 9:40 am
Terry -
Thanks for the heads-up - I just posted this response to your question on AR;
Zillow is a database of all homes not just those that are currently on the market and so we calculate Zestimate values for all of the homes in our database. With this database we can report the value trends of all homes not just those that recently sold. The beauty of this approach is that it is not skewed by a change in the mix of homes that are selling - a common problem for the traditional approach of reporting value trends using only an analysis of recent sales.
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Real estate » Blog Archive » Report Card on August 29, 2007 4:40 am
[…] Q2 Home Value Reports: Larger Homes, Condos Suffer Most - Zillow Blog - Real Estate News and Analysi… Today weve released our Q2 2007 Home Value Reports, covering the national market and 66 individual metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). The reports go deep on an MSA basis, by county and neighborhood, and by quarter-over-quarter, year-over-year, and 5 & 10-year annualized changes. We also look at different categories of homes large/medium/small, single-family residences vs. condos, and most popular on Zillow by geography. Whew! Now on to topline results. […]
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home value report on April 9, 2008 5:12 am
Good stuff on these here reports.